* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/27/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 25 25 28 30 31 34 37 38 41 45 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 25 25 28 30 31 34 37 38 41 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 27 28 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 15 13 16 13 19 12 12 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 5 352 341 324 340 338 357 3 345 330 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 143 145 145 142 141 140 141 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 43 45 48 54 56 59 62 62 61 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 37 29 35 29 6 -15 -26 -34 -39 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 1 12 16 10 -16 -21 -21 -12 -17 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 712 689 672 645 628 645 706 822 915 948 1024 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.0 152.6 153.2 154.0 154.8 157.2 159.1 161.4 163.3 164.7 166.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 11 10 10 8 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 26 27 20 22 53 31 49 47 49 67 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -2. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 11. 15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/27/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/27/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY