* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/27/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 54 58 60 66 65 56 47 38 28 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 54 58 60 66 49 38 33 24 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 52 53 57 61 59 42 41 35 32 30 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 17 11 13 23 31 40 56 68 88 89 81 SHEAR DIR 307 305 286 258 233 225 249 247 252 264 269 277 272 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.3 20.8 18.4 17.3 11.5 12.5 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 148 149 147 132 87 80 77 70 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 130 128 129 130 118 80 74 72 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -54.5 -54.6 -55.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 54 60 64 69 63 54 52 65 68 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 13 14 12 11 16 16 11 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -28 -25 -42 -33 -11 19 86 67 26 0 45 91 200 MB DIV 18 48 46 32 41 63 99 103 86 42 22 16 37 LAND (KM) 733 682 644 586 485 276 277 125 -34 -7 193 724 1284 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.2 28.9 29.9 30.8 33.6 37.5 41.6 45.7 48.7 50.6 52.1 53.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.3 73.9 74.2 74.4 73.8 72.1 68.9 64.3 58.5 51.7 44.2 36.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 18 22 25 25 24 24 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 43 46 38 39 49 43 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -17. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -1. 0. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 16. 15. 6. -3. -12. -22. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/27/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/27/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY