* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/27/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 47 58 67 74 76 76 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 47 58 67 74 76 76 78 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 55 66 74 76 77 77 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 13 10 7 5 6 2 12 11 10 6 SHEAR DIR 1 14 11 38 48 62 73 133 159 133 157 133 85 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 141 140 137 130 126 126 128 128 128 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 145 143 139 131 126 124 126 124 123 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 71 69 71 71 69 60 60 51 50 49 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 70 70 73 66 59 49 52 19 4 10 6 4 200 MB DIV 43 62 49 49 36 57 17 30 -7 -3 -32 9 -13 LAND (KM) 977 1122 1253 1397 1543 1738 1695 1618 1438 1292 1163 1057 978 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 25.6 27.0 28.4 29.9 31.3 34.1 36.7 39.2 41.6 43.8 45.6 46.9 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 12 16 13 10 9 10 16 14 22 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 22. 33. 42. 49. 51. 51. 53. 56. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/27/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)