* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/27/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 31 33 32 32 32 29 28 29 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 31 31 33 32 32 32 29 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 24 24 23 18 18 18 21 22 21 26 32 33 30 SHEAR DIR 348 330 317 309 312 326 332 327 297 278 267 272 284 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 142 142 141 139 138 141 143 141 139 140 141 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 39 38 39 40 43 42 46 42 42 40 47 47 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 56 44 49 47 27 15 -6 -21 -41 -50 -58 -54 200 MB DIV -4 4 8 -5 5 -16 -25 -4 -17 -3 10 34 56 LAND (KM) 571 528 498 472 467 485 605 624 697 845 990 1103 1322 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.5 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.3 20.0 20.9 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 153.0 153.9 154.7 155.7 156.6 158.5 160.6 162.8 165.2 167.4 169.1 170.4 172.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 10 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 29 30 19 19 25 60 29 18 41 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 850 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/27/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/27/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY