* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/27/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 47 49 53 61 64 58 46 40 34 30 V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 47 49 53 61 64 52 36 33 26 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 45 47 51 55 53 39 33 32 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 8 8 12 29 29 44 55 72 77 73 71 SHEAR DIR 299 284 294 238 221 232 255 249 258 264 272 283 287 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.3 19.4 19.5 16.3 12.4 14.2 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 150 147 132 82 82 75 70 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 130 132 133 133 119 77 76 70 68 70 69 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -55.7 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 60 64 66 64 59 61 59 56 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 12 16 19 15 10 12 13 20 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -26 -42 -39 -13 -22 43 42 1 -36 -35 6 79 200 MB DIV 46 22 16 33 71 45 119 77 29 31 33 17 21 LAND (KM) 663 628 600 602 492 256 350 183 11 -94 273 868 1505 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.6 30.7 34.1 38.0 42.1 45.9 48.4 49.5 50.8 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.4 73.8 74.2 74.4 74.5 73.6 70.7 66.7 61.9 56.1 49.5 41.4 32.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 12 14 20 24 25 24 23 24 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 42 37 50 37 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -5. -10. -16. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. 0. 2. -1. -6. -5. -4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 16. 19. 13. 1. -5. -11. -15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/27/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/27/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY