* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/27/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 45 57 70 79 85 88 91 91 93 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 45 57 70 79 85 88 91 91 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 48 59 71 80 84 84 84 83 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 9 11 8 2 3 6 5 1 5 6 6 SHEAR DIR 47 33 55 52 53 63 73 108 128 183 2 341 18 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 138 134 128 124 125 123 122 121 122 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 142 140 135 127 122 121 118 114 112 113 112 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 69 70 67 58 57 50 50 48 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 14 14 13 15 15 14 14 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 74 69 68 70 62 46 22 18 11 11 -6 200 MB DIV 72 55 37 39 47 40 7 26 0 -18 -26 -17 5 LAND (KM) 1123 1250 1380 1514 1650 1766 1775 1627 1504 1404 1322 1236 1178 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.4 29.7 31.1 32.4 35.0 37.6 39.9 42.1 43.7 44.8 45.8 46.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 9 7 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 15 13 13 9 8 9 13 12 13 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 32. 45. 54. 60. 63. 66. 66. 68. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/27/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)