* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 08/27/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 55 68 78 83 86 90 91 90 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 55 68 78 83 86 90 91 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 42 52 60 66 71 75 81 84 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 13 10 9 5 7 9 8 9 8 8 6 SHEAR DIR 60 72 65 95 103 109 242 283 295 317 353 3 339 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 166 165 165 167 167 167 169 166 160 149 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 80 78 76 78 77 75 76 76 74 77 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 12 14 14 15 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -3 -4 -3 -2 3 9 10 8 28 41 47 200 MB DIV 55 64 53 27 32 45 75 53 47 40 45 22 13 LAND (KM) 325 320 330 339 369 417 444 469 507 521 586 558 546 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.1 17.0 18.1 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.8 97.0 98.1 99.2 100.2 102.2 104.1 105.8 107.2 108.5 110.0 111.6 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 65 66 65 61 57 62 65 78 78 57 54 47 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 11. 13. 16. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 30. 43. 53. 58. 61. 65. 66. 65. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 08/27/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 08/27/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY