* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/28/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 38 39 44 51 52 45 37 31 29 23 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 38 39 44 51 44 35 32 26 24 18 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 36 36 36 39 40 33 33 33 30 27 26 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 8 12 23 27 41 52 60 72 81 71 82 SHEAR DIR 284 295 259 231 240 251 259 264 268 276 276 294 306 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.8 21.8 18.5 17.8 12.3 13.1 12.8 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 148 139 91 80 78 70 71 72 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 131 133 134 125 84 75 73 67 68 70 71 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -56.0 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 60 65 66 68 67 72 69 63 62 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 17 18 15 12 13 19 25 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -51 -52 -35 -31 10 35 -16 -38 -21 16 38 23 200 MB DIV 5 10 36 60 56 107 132 96 40 24 14 24 26 LAND (KM) 679 656 630 489 357 319 161 -35 -39 171 621 1231 1082 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.7 29.4 31.0 32.5 36.6 41.0 44.9 48.0 49.7 50.3 50.8 51.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 73.7 74.1 74.0 73.8 72.2 68.7 63.5 57.5 51.2 44.8 36.2 26.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 12 16 18 23 27 26 24 22 24 30 32 HEAT CONTENT 48 40 36 40 31 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -7. -12. -18. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 2. -1. -3. -2. 2. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. 4. 11. 12. 5. -3. -9. -11. -17. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/28/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/28/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY