* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/28/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 63 73 79 80 81 85 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 63 73 79 80 81 85 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 40 49 60 69 75 75 76 79 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 11 7 6 4 4 7 2 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 51 26 47 64 42 9 100 90 166 228 145 42 98 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 135 132 130 128 128 125 122 120 120 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 140 136 133 131 128 126 121 116 112 111 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -52.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 65 59 58 53 50 50 52 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 13 14 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 89 84 82 75 82 57 52 28 5 -9 -11 -7 -10 200 MB DIV 67 70 56 65 73 14 9 -6 0 -44 -21 -25 -2 LAND (KM) 1449 1572 1695 1659 1634 1645 1577 1464 1395 1324 1273 1223 1212 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.7 12.8 13.7 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.3 32.5 33.7 34.9 37.5 39.9 42.2 44.1 45.4 46.5 47.6 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 8 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 15 12 10 11 13 13 11 11 12 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 38. 48. 54. 55. 56. 60. 62. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/28/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)