* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952009 08/28/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 31 31 28 27 29 31 32 34 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 31 31 28 27 29 31 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 21 19 19 19 19 20 SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 9 12 17 20 34 22 22 15 26 25 SHEAR DIR 121 171 215 231 225 252 269 269 280 281 262 263 228 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 145 145 145 145 144 145 144 143 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.1 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 61 62 57 55 58 54 59 56 54 53 66 68 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 3 17 24 26 27 20 23 36 18 32 32 60 200 MB DIV 54 72 49 52 76 65 52 46 31 86 210 170 140 LAND (KM) 1702 1728 1756 1781 1808 1869 1937 1995 2032 2043 1975 1811 1784 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.6 19.6 20.7 22.4 24.8 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 173.8 174.3 174.8 175.3 175.8 176.8 177.8 178.6 179.2 179.5 179.0 177.3 176.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 11 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 96 98 92 86 83 79 84 81 76 62 45 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 8. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 91.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY