* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/28/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 28 29 30 30 28 29 31 34 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 28 29 30 30 28 29 31 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 14 17 18 17 19 20 16 17 19 16 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 343 333 323 336 337 348 351 316 287 283 283 250 N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 142 140 140 140 142 143 144 144 144 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 45 45 43 48 50 50 49 51 55 60 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 49 42 31 19 -3 -21 -43 -52 -55 -39 N/A 200 MB DIV 22 16 16 -18 -27 -8 2 0 5 -11 35 56 N/A LAND (KM) 600 585 591 627 682 796 839 908 1024 1108 1241 1493 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.5 156.5 157.5 158.7 159.9 161.9 164.1 165.9 167.8 169.2 170.9 173.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 11 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 53 49 22 23 46 46 39 33 33 29 22 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 4. 6. 9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/28/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/28/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY