* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 08/28/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 52 59 63 63 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 52 59 63 63 62 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 43 48 53 57 61 64 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 1 3 5 12 8 12 6 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 75 162 188 204 197 157 145 139 147 162 115 253 142 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 152 150 148 145 142 137 134 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 69 68 65 59 56 52 47 47 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 43 40 38 43 58 72 88 86 87 86 69 200 MB DIV 94 67 50 48 77 72 70 69 83 45 12 18 23 LAND (KM) 1413 1460 1504 1547 1599 1675 1696 1702 1683 1670 1670 1699 1728 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.4 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 116.1 117.3 118.5 119.6 121.5 122.8 123.6 124.2 124.7 125.3 126.0 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 46 44 43 39 42 36 13 10 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 27. 34. 38. 38. 37. 36. 36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY