* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/28/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 35 36 46 56 55 48 45 45 37 27 V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 35 36 46 56 44 33 35 35 27 16 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 31 31 32 34 35 30 29 31 30 29 29 SHEAR (KT) 15 10 14 23 29 33 43 57 67 83 71 70 64 SHEAR DIR 304 262 236 236 230 237 250 252 262 258 260 260 250 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 26.2 18.8 19.4 15.7 11.6 14.2 12.8 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 146 120 81 82 74 69 72 70 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 132 135 132 108 75 76 70 67 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.3 -53.6 -52.6 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 59 65 67 67 66 63 61 61 65 59 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 15 22 20 13 16 22 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -50 -26 -26 -14 70 57 41 36 73 119 182 192 200 MB DIV 11 28 68 60 60 143 138 88 66 51 63 26 43 LAND (KM) 607 564 465 306 192 257 178 11 -80 298 778 1288 1222 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.9 30.8 32.6 34.4 38.5 42.4 45.9 48.8 50.4 50.5 50.8 51.3 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.6 74.8 74.5 74.2 71.7 67.3 62.1 56.2 49.7 42.6 35.4 28.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 13 18 20 24 26 25 23 22 23 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 53 46 35 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 3. -3. -9. -14. -20. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 6. 4. -1. 1. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. 1. 11. 21. 20. 13. 10. 10. 2. -8. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/28/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/28/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED