* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/28/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 54 64 73 80 86 90 91 95 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 54 64 73 80 86 90 91 95 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 61 70 76 80 85 87 SHEAR (KT) 7 13 13 11 8 8 9 11 6 7 1 7 4 SHEAR DIR 57 44 65 51 56 47 107 103 122 68 18 20 31 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 131 129 128 127 126 123 120 120 120 121 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 134 130 128 128 126 122 118 113 111 112 114 114 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 67 67 60 56 51 49 45 50 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 87 86 76 77 66 50 44 23 11 0 4 -13 -12 200 MB DIV 67 58 66 88 57 24 17 -20 -15 -30 -34 -29 5 LAND (KM) 1654 1656 1617 1607 1606 1637 1532 1447 1390 1324 1251 1179 1138 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.1 12.1 13.2 14.0 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 33.2 34.3 35.4 36.4 38.7 40.8 42.8 44.3 45.4 46.4 47.7 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 15 12 10 12 13 12 12 11 12 13 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 29. 39. 48. 55. 61. 65. 66. 70. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/28/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)