* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/28/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 23 24 26 26 25 27 29 32 34 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 23 24 26 26 25 27 29 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 21 21 19 18 22 15 17 19 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 328 325 331 338 345 345 326 287 272 265 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 141 140 141 141 143 145 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 46 47 48 55 55 52 56 59 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 52 37 25 24 2 -21 -35 -44 -53 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 13 -17 -19 -17 -5 -12 -21 -2 11 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 559 582 625 679 746 885 966 1039 1128 1313 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.2 157.3 158.3 159.5 160.7 162.8 165.0 166.7 168.3 170.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 10 10 8 10 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 49 29 23 45 46 40 68 72 81 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/28/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/28/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY