* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 08/28/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 38 48 58 66 72 75 80 80 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 38 48 58 66 72 75 80 80 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 48 52 56 58 58 56 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 11 9 10 7 8 9 15 11 13 8 SHEAR DIR 68 107 107 120 122 201 239 281 262 256 233 255 246 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.3 29.7 28.5 26.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 167 167 168 170 169 168 162 150 133 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 79 80 76 78 82 78 76 72 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 9 9 10 12 13 14 16 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -4 5 7 13 16 15 25 25 30 33 55 72 200 MB DIV 62 54 55 66 59 48 60 50 54 66 76 52 51 LAND (KM) 281 273 286 301 315 361 378 413 452 513 433 493 546 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.7 20.9 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.8 99.7 100.6 101.5 103.4 105.2 106.9 108.6 110.5 112.4 114.6 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 69 68 66 63 67 65 59 68 50 46 28 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 5. 14. 23. 31. 36. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 14. 19. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 23. 33. 41. 47. 50. 55. 55. 52. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 08/28/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 08/28/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY