* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/28/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 37 41 52 58 53 45 39 37 30 22 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 37 41 52 58 40 34 32 30 22 15 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 34 34 36 35 33 29 32 30 30 31 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 21 27 31 39 48 55 73 83 74 65 51 SHEAR DIR 287 233 231 226 222 245 251 254 253 259 264 255 252 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 23.0 17.7 19.5 17.3 11.6 11.6 11.5 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 146 138 97 77 80 75 70 72 72 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 132 130 125 88 72 73 70 68 70 70 72 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -53.7 -53.7 -52.6 -51.3 -49.9 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 67 67 67 68 62 61 52 56 63 61 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 19 24 18 14 14 17 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -23 -18 -10 26 60 42 69 145 159 186 196 223 200 MB DIV 29 66 40 55 112 132 96 65 47 30 36 31 69 LAND (KM) 512 414 310 197 195 137 2 -16 -52 185 840 1468 709 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 31.2 32.3 34.2 36.0 40.5 43.7 46.2 48.4 50.5 52.9 53.8 53.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.2 75.0 74.4 73.7 70.0 65.2 61.2 57.7 51.7 42.9 32.4 20.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 15 19 23 25 22 17 19 26 30 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 47 55 46 44 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 853 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 2. -4. -11. -16. -21. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 8. 3. 0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 6. 17. 23. 18. 10. 4. 2. -5. -13. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/28/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/28/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY