* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/28/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 56 67 73 80 84 84 87 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 56 67 73 80 84 84 87 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 40 50 61 69 75 79 83 85 SHEAR (KT) 17 18 8 8 7 5 2 6 3 0 8 5 6 SHEAR DIR 72 61 59 41 21 94 348 172 288 220 335 27 322 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 130 131 132 131 127 122 121 122 124 127 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 127 130 130 131 130 124 117 113 113 114 118 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 71 68 61 61 61 57 53 54 53 50 51 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 15 14 14 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 104 98 95 88 79 55 34 12 1 -7 0 9 1 200 MB DIV 64 75 92 59 47 49 24 14 -33 -8 -29 -15 4 LAND (KM) 1553 1536 1527 1537 1467 1344 1274 1239 1239 1244 1262 1244 1198 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 11.1 11.4 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.0 38.0 39.1 40.1 42.4 44.6 46.6 48.1 49.3 50.4 51.6 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 10 11 11 11 12 12 10 7 6 6 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 14 16 18 17 14 12 13 21 29 37 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 336 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 31. 42. 48. 55. 59. 59. 62. 62. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/28/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/28/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY