* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/28/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 25 28 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 25 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 22 SHEAR (KT) 22 23 24 24 23 18 23 23 27 24 26 14 9 SHEAR DIR 334 340 333 338 339 325 294 290 279 271 286 314 304 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 140 140 142 144 143 142 141 142 142 141 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 45 46 47 48 52 58 57 56 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 46 37 27 19 -10 -30 -51 -52 -53 -48 -23 -37 200 MB DIV 11 -7 -12 -14 -9 -11 -9 -5 -14 58 118 79 109 LAND (KM) 584 611 656 719 789 849 965 1069 1175 1263 1344 1420 1508 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.3 20.6 22.6 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 157.6 158.8 159.9 161.1 162.2 164.7 167.1 168.9 170.4 171.6 172.7 173.6 174.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 8 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 21 22 28 43 58 31 28 24 42 26 33 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 3. 5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/28/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/28/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY