* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 08/28/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 58 66 71 76 80 81 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 58 66 71 76 80 81 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 48 51 55 57 59 57 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 9 10 6 4 8 12 4 7 6 9 SHEAR DIR 79 93 109 106 134 230 226 294 273 226 239 203 224 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.7 28.7 27.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 167 168 169 169 168 162 152 134 115 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 9 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 81 79 79 79 78 76 80 77 76 72 72 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 11 12 13 15 17 18 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR -9 1 4 10 9 18 14 20 21 29 18 48 40 200 MB DIV 46 43 66 64 50 67 26 56 36 42 45 62 27 LAND (KM) 287 302 319 349 379 404 453 489 545 554 476 464 435 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.7 18.0 19.3 20.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.0 100.9 101.8 102.7 104.4 106.0 107.7 109.3 111.0 112.5 114.0 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 66 66 62 66 72 49 78 67 51 48 32 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 5. 14. 23. 31. 36. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 33. 41. 46. 51. 55. 56. 51. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 08/28/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 08/28/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED