* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/28/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 42 47 59 59 51 43 35 34 30 24 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 42 47 59 59 51 40 32 31 27 21 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 38 39 36 33 30 27 26 27 30 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 20 24 35 48 58 64 86 72 64 38 29 SHEAR DIR 221 221 225 233 232 246 250 265 264 259 255 230 212 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.2 20.3 19.5 16.9 12.5 14.2 11.9 13.0 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 143 132 86 83 76 70 73 71 71 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 134 131 120 80 77 71 68 70 68 69 70 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.2 -53.0 -51.8 -49.5 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 69 62 55 57 65 66 65 59 61 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 15 18 26 23 16 18 17 21 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -13 15 55 67 42 34 73 124 161 218 256 200 MB DIV 56 60 51 105 123 127 101 62 37 42 33 64 80 LAND (KM) 483 371 248 204 250 199 9 0 288 834 1427 1025 477 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.6 33.0 35.2 37.4 41.7 45.0 47.5 49.3 50.8 52.0 52.9 53.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 75.3 74.9 73.7 72.5 68.0 61.6 55.4 49.2 41.9 33.6 25.4 17.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 19 24 26 28 27 23 23 26 26 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 52 23 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 878 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 1. -7. -14. -18. -21. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 7. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 7. 12. 24. 24. 16. 8. 0. -1. -5. -11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/28/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/28/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY