* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 08/28/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 46 57 67 75 80 84 89 85 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 46 57 67 75 80 84 89 85 78 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 48 55 62 69 74 77 74 65 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 4 4 3 7 2 4 9 11 SHEAR DIR 106 115 107 131 158 220 254 320 304 156 176 199 217 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.2 29.4 28.1 25.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 165 166 168 167 169 167 159 146 121 99 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 81 79 78 77 77 74 73 72 69 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 5 9 18 23 38 37 35 26 33 46 57 200 MB DIV 61 95 81 66 75 67 54 57 48 49 51 36 36 LAND (KM) 334 354 373 392 416 444 494 515 590 520 439 377 392 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.8 18.4 20.1 22.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 101.0 101.9 102.7 103.4 105.0 106.5 108.1 109.9 111.4 113.0 114.4 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 62 58 64 72 68 67 79 65 55 46 19 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 19. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 27. 37. 45. 50. 54. 59. 55. 48. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 08/28/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 08/28/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED