* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 08/28/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 52 54 54 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 52 54 54 53 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 40 43 46 48 50 52 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 5 5 10 6 11 0 5 1 8 8 SHEAR DIR 64 118 164 206 192 183 148 194 157 211 58 142 126 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 149 147 144 141 138 134 131 128 129 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 63 60 56 54 50 46 48 50 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 43 40 43 51 55 72 66 76 54 60 46 200 MB DIV 33 44 54 62 40 36 49 59 56 13 20 19 25 LAND (KM) 1577 1618 1665 1695 1716 1731 1716 1668 1614 1572 1585 1582 1616 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.5 16.8 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.0 120.9 121.6 122.3 123.3 123.9 124.0 124.1 124.3 124.7 124.9 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 39 37 39 40 34 26 12 8 6 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. 27. 24. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 08/28/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY