* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/29/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 45 51 59 60 54 49 43 38 32 23 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 45 51 59 42 36 31 25 21 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 38 38 38 32 32 29 27 27 28 32 SHEAR (KT) 14 19 24 29 36 47 58 70 80 76 39 14 11 SHEAR DIR 224 221 222 233 249 254 268 259 261 259 251 221 205 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.7 24.8 18.3 16.9 11.7 12.8 12.2 12.1 13.3 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 138 110 81 77 68 70 71 70 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 134 128 101 77 72 66 67 69 68 65 65 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.0 -52.5 -51.6 -49.3 -47.3 -46.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 68 62 58 64 63 61 58 56 64 64 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 19 22 24 22 19 22 24 25 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -12 15 49 83 27 5 55 115 166 225 268 203 200 MB DIV 45 60 121 139 131 116 99 38 34 41 41 27 8 LAND (KM) 438 289 222 319 243 44 -88 199 580 1092 1266 855 578 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.9 34.9 37.2 39.5 44.1 48.4 50.2 50.5 51.6 54.2 55.0 54.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 74.4 73.6 71.8 69.9 63.8 56.9 51.1 45.5 38.4 29.4 23.1 18.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 21 24 27 30 32 26 19 20 26 24 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 54 44 27 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 3. -5. -12. -14. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 5. 2. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 10. 16. 24. 25. 19. 14. 8. 3. -3. -12. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/29/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/29/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY