* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/29/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 46 53 60 68 73 76 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 46 53 60 68 73 76 78 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 48 53 60 68 75 82 SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 4 9 7 6 4 6 2 8 3 9 SHEAR DIR 41 47 89 102 140 229 186 251 192 134 150 137 151 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 130 129 126 122 124 126 129 130 134 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 131 129 128 123 118 118 118 119 121 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 58 58 52 50 48 46 40 40 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 96 93 85 81 57 27 7 -3 -11 -14 -24 -34 200 MB DIV 63 47 50 63 52 24 28 8 23 -16 -28 -28 -14 LAND (KM) 1594 1574 1489 1419 1362 1260 1204 1169 1166 1088 1009 923 876 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 39.1 40.3 41.5 42.7 45.2 47.4 49.4 51.1 52.6 53.8 55.3 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 15 17 15 13 12 21 32 39 42 48 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 21. 28. 35. 43. 48. 51. 53. 56. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/29/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/29/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY