* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 08/29/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 60 69 73 79 82 83 78 72 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 60 69 73 79 82 83 78 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 39 42 50 57 62 67 70 71 67 60 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 11 5 5 5 6 4 2 9 10 8 SHEAR DIR 115 97 115 160 167 217 242 252 319 187 177 242 215 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.0 27.0 25.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 167 168 168 169 167 164 156 135 113 104 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.1 -50.8 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 11 9 10 8 9 7 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 79 77 77 74 73 70 70 67 60 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 15 16 18 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -5 2 8 18 20 23 21 23 22 13 42 53 54 200 MB DIV 103 80 67 84 94 63 60 46 52 49 42 12 2 LAND (KM) 382 389 401 397 399 440 470 525 581 490 470 453 509 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.5 18.9 20.9 22.4 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.3 103.1 103.8 104.5 105.8 107.4 108.9 110.3 112.0 114.1 115.9 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 10 12 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 57 68 70 62 40 76 70 53 51 39 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 30. 39. 43. 49. 52. 53. 48. 42. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 08/29/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 08/29/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED