* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 08/29/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 50 52 53 54 55 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 50 52 53 54 55 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 40 42 44 47 52 58 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 2 8 6 13 9 3 3 8 7 10 SHEAR DIR 68 110 221 188 177 149 143 203 176 4 66 96 122 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 148 148 145 142 139 138 138 137 138 135 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 55 55 51 50 46 45 43 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 35 34 38 40 58 64 76 78 68 46 8 200 MB DIV 36 40 49 35 27 36 54 52 16 28 43 46 19 LAND (KM) 1633 1673 1711 1729 1749 1801 1831 1858 1896 1920 1938 1981 2035 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.0 121.8 122.5 123.2 124.5 125.5 126.2 127.0 127.6 128.2 129.0 130.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 37 39 39 32 27 14 12 27 29 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 08/29/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 08/29/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY