* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/29/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 38 49 57 64 72 79 82 88 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 38 49 57 64 72 79 82 88 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 56 63 70 77 86 95 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 7 2 2 8 4 5 9 5 6 5 SHEAR DIR 93 52 57 99 178 15 227 234 203 118 164 91 172 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 135 134 133 129 128 131 136 138 141 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 137 135 133 127 124 125 129 130 133 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 62 57 55 51 47 45 43 42 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 107 100 81 81 75 48 25 12 -3 -7 -24 -23 -37 200 MB DIV 34 39 56 51 29 32 31 17 15 19 0 3 -13 LAND (KM) 1458 1353 1259 1194 1141 1046 1011 977 877 763 667 581 518 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.4 42.8 44.1 45.4 48.0 50.2 52.1 53.8 55.2 56.4 57.8 59.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 21 23 23 26 33 42 50 58 62 77 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 404 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 24. 32. 39. 47. 54. 57. 63. 63. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/29/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/29/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY