* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/29/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 34 35 37 37 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 34 35 37 37 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 31 32 34 37 40 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 8 7 19 15 23 19 18 23 16 26 SHEAR DIR 321 314 322 306 269 265 271 277 275 253 258 213 185 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 144 144 145 144 142 142 142 142 144 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 46 47 53 60 61 67 67 62 62 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 25 10 1 -13 -37 -58 -70 -46 -42 -47 -32 -52 200 MB DIV 6 -14 -41 -17 -7 -2 39 41 125 119 133 66 115 LAND (KM) 911 956 1003 1060 1132 1271 1379 1433 1428 1358 1373 1544 1862 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.3 18.4 20.0 22.3 25.3 29.0 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 162.6 164.0 165.3 166.7 168.0 170.3 172.0 173.0 173.4 173.0 172.8 173.1 173.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 14 13 11 8 7 10 13 17 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 57 67 71 79 53 24 19 25 28 20 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 10. 12. 12. 14. 13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/29/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/29/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY