* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/29/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 65 71 83 90 93 96 96 96 89 78 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 65 71 83 90 93 96 96 96 89 78 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 59 65 72 84 93 98 98 95 89 79 66 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 9 5 4 6 7 4 9 8 15 18 SHEAR DIR 81 88 117 147 169 170 234 274 212 227 220 234 249 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.9 28.8 27.6 25.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 166 167 168 168 168 168 164 152 140 119 94 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 78 79 74 72 69 70 68 67 62 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 15 23 33 32 28 22 7 0 12 10 11 200 MB DIV 86 67 84 109 85 76 37 23 25 29 35 17 4 LAND (KM) 383 401 427 418 424 453 468 470 503 373 302 254 203 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.8 18.2 19.7 21.2 22.7 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.7 103.4 104.1 104.8 106.0 107.2 108.5 109.9 111.1 112.3 113.3 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 62 72 69 61 58 78 73 51 45 35 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 25. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 20. 26. 38. 45. 48. 51. 51. 51. 44. 33. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/29/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 6.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 60% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 44% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/29/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY