* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/29/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 70 79 87 94 102 104 104 102 98 93 81 67 V (KT) LAND 60 70 79 87 94 102 104 104 102 98 93 81 67 V (KT) LGE mod 60 71 80 89 95 104 106 104 98 88 76 63 49 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 6 4 3 7 5 14 12 19 17 24 SHEAR DIR 88 126 148 168 192 242 255 267 231 221 233 239 272 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.9 28.8 27.3 25.4 23.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 168 168 168 169 164 153 137 116 95 79 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 79 76 71 70 68 68 69 67 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 15 16 17 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 5 16 24 34 25 28 19 14 -2 20 11 25 28 200 MB DIV 67 85 109 85 80 67 26 32 22 54 3 20 -14 LAND (KM) 404 411 402 411 427 442 407 417 297 221 136 142 118 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.7 17.0 18.6 20.3 22.1 23.7 25.0 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.5 104.1 104.8 105.4 106.7 107.9 109.2 110.7 112.0 112.9 113.7 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 73 68 54 53 69 72 50 44 32 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 13. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 27. 34. 42. 44. 44. 42. 38. 33. 21. 7. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/29/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 8.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 13.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 19.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/29/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED