* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 08/29/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 44 42 42 43 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 44 42 42 43 43 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 44 43 42 40 40 41 41 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 9 9 10 9 6 5 7 7 14 13 SHEAR DIR 114 81 129 145 159 157 228 263 317 87 88 114 129 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 146 144 140 136 132 129 129 130 130 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 54 50 47 44 46 44 39 35 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 30 34 28 44 48 47 55 48 41 3 -3 200 MB DIV 27 23 16 -9 -13 21 9 -3 0 22 22 11 28 LAND (KM) 1610 1615 1624 1622 1623 1598 1561 1543 1549 1593 1655 1750 1880 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.5 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.9 122.5 122.9 123.3 123.7 123.9 124.2 124.6 125.2 126.1 127.4 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 42 38 32 17 12 6 5 2 4 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 08/29/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 08/29/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY