* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/29/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 49 58 67 76 83 88 89 90 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 49 58 67 76 83 88 89 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 57 69 81 91 96 97 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 6 10 10 4 6 6 8 6 10 11 10 SHEAR DIR 53 49 4 351 3 352 24 15 58 79 92 145 180 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 134 131 126 126 126 130 133 137 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 136 133 129 121 119 119 121 124 128 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 53 54 49 44 46 43 41 40 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 65 57 48 42 31 2 -13 -13 -22 -13 -20 -24 -22 200 MB DIV 57 43 36 30 32 17 -7 -18 -5 6 13 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 1247 1189 1145 1122 1100 1070 1075 1061 1023 904 806 737 678 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.1 44.2 45.3 46.4 48.3 49.9 51.4 52.7 54.1 55.5 56.9 58.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 26 25 20 27 35 42 51 60 64 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 378 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 24. 33. 42. 51. 58. 63. 64. 65. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/29/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/29/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY