* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/29/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 104 115 122 127 128 122 115 108 100 88 72 59 V (KT) LAND 90 104 115 122 127 128 122 115 108 100 88 72 59 V (KT) LGE mod 90 106 117 123 126 124 117 107 96 84 69 54 42 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 7 11 5 6 10 8 15 18 SHEAR DIR 111 116 148 185 187 245 261 244 239 205 220 228 262 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.3 28.2 26.1 23.5 22.5 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 169 167 158 146 125 97 86 84 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 77 74 69 68 67 66 65 56 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 31 23 25 24 18 7 10 22 6 0 13 200 MB DIV 87 94 75 70 74 44 29 35 41 34 18 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 371 379 397 413 437 429 449 413 315 320 295 330 348 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 16.5 17.8 19.2 20.6 22.1 23.6 24.9 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.4 107.7 109.0 110.4 111.8 113.4 114.9 116.4 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 28 64 69 71 56 49 39 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 396 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -13. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 11. 17. 19. 19. 15. 11. 8. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 14. 25. 32. 37. 38. 32. 25. 18. 10. -2. -18. -31. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/29/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 45.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 8.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 13.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 19.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/29/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED