* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/30/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 47 57 66 76 83 87 91 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 47 57 66 76 83 87 91 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 55 67 79 89 95 100 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 10 12 6 8 6 9 9 11 12 6 8 SHEAR DIR 44 346 343 14 34 7 48 36 92 60 104 99 171 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 135 131 127 128 131 134 138 141 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 138 134 128 122 121 124 126 130 133 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 55 55 48 47 44 44 44 41 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 59 51 47 35 29 0 -12 -19 -8 -8 0 -7 -10 200 MB DIV 40 37 41 47 47 21 10 -1 2 7 5 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1135 1090 1058 1032 1010 1019 1014 1008 899 778 692 617 587 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.8 13.8 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.5 45.6 46.7 47.8 49.6 51.2 52.6 53.9 55.4 56.8 58.3 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 32 32 30 29 35 42 51 60 65 74 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 32. 41. 51. 58. 62. 66. 68. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/30/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/30/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY