* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/30/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 99 106 110 113 113 110 104 97 87 74 61 48 V (KT) LAND 90 99 106 110 113 113 110 104 97 87 74 61 48 V (KT) LGE mod 90 99 105 108 110 108 103 97 87 75 59 46 37 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 7 4 11 4 6 6 9 11 19 23 SHEAR DIR 133 169 211 242 250 259 256 239 232 263 258 261 249 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.6 28.7 27.1 24.4 22.2 22.4 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 168 168 166 160 151 135 107 84 85 85 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 9 11 8 7 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 75 71 70 64 65 63 58 51 41 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 14 27 23 25 17 14 19 3 18 5 4 5 13 200 MB DIV 101 71 72 69 62 28 34 36 53 2 2 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 341 347 363 359 367 393 423 292 253 209 281 327 440 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.4 22.0 23.5 24.8 25.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.4 106.1 106.7 107.3 108.5 109.7 110.9 112.3 113.8 115.4 117.2 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 10 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 63 66 64 56 49 41 30 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 363 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -9. -17. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 20. 23. 23. 20. 14. 7. -3. -16. -29. -42. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/30/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 69% is 9.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 68% is 13.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/30/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY