* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 08/30/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 53 54 54 53 52 51 50 50 46 43 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 53 54 54 53 52 51 50 50 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 59 61 63 62 59 56 54 53 50 46 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 6 4 1 7 9 16 13 16 SHEAR DIR 106 123 137 141 151 192 240 230 121 151 122 117 133 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 144 141 137 134 132 133 132 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 51 54 47 41 40 40 40 40 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 32 36 45 48 36 48 42 46 54 28 30 200 MB DIV -8 -7 -16 13 18 10 -7 -9 -6 -11 3 3 11 LAND (KM) 1649 1621 1593 1547 1501 1406 1274 1205 1159 1082 968 940 979 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.9 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.2 19.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.2 122.3 122.3 122.2 121.9 121.3 121.0 120.8 120.3 119.5 119.6 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 6 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 42 38 35 14 7 6 3 6 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 1. -2. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 08/30/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 08/30/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY