* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/30/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 55 65 74 80 84 85 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 55 65 74 80 84 85 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 62 74 84 91 92 SHEAR (KT) 4 9 6 2 3 12 10 10 7 12 6 10 12 SHEAR DIR 322 316 353 87 347 16 7 57 58 73 144 165 209 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 134 131 129 129 131 134 136 139 141 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 139 134 130 126 123 124 125 128 130 132 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 55 54 58 58 57 48 48 45 46 45 44 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 64 60 48 38 21 3 -9 -8 -6 -6 -11 -4 -12 200 MB DIV 39 45 55 56 31 26 10 22 18 1 7 -11 -15 LAND (KM) 1048 1020 992 986 995 1026 989 893 791 719 662 627 497 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.3 47.5 48.6 49.7 51.5 53.0 54.3 55.6 56.9 58.2 59.7 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 33 31 31 36 44 51 60 66 68 67 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 40. 49. 55. 59. 60. 61. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/30/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/30/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY