* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/30/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 49 58 67 77 82 85 86 86 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 49 58 67 77 82 85 86 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 38 46 56 67 79 88 94 93 SHEAR (KT) 10 4 2 2 7 9 11 9 8 9 6 13 7 SHEAR DIR 320 354 145 355 321 13 35 83 46 120 165 199 251 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 131 129 132 134 138 141 143 144 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 135 131 129 126 126 126 130 132 135 137 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 54 58 58 58 54 53 48 49 47 43 44 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 57 45 38 20 5 0 -9 4 -4 -11 -15 -13 -26 200 MB DIV 31 47 50 29 22 39 14 19 27 9 -18 -29 -20 LAND (KM) 1020 987 971 975 982 993 874 768 671 607 587 479 283 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 47.5 48.7 49.8 50.9 52.8 54.3 55.7 57.1 58.5 60.0 61.7 63.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 32 33 36 44 53 61 68 74 67 45 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 24. 33. 42. 52. 57. 60. 61. 61. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/30/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/30/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY