* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/30/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 56 66 74 81 84 86 90 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 56 66 74 81 84 86 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 54 64 74 85 93 98 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 3 10 9 14 15 12 7 7 4 3 SHEAR DIR 15 193 327 360 17 19 45 57 69 81 110 184 128 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 131 132 133 135 138 141 143 144 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 133 130 127 127 126 127 129 132 135 136 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 56 53 52 51 54 50 49 42 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 10 11 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 52 42 25 4 -3 -11 -4 8 10 16 8 3 1 200 MB DIV 63 55 39 31 44 9 20 17 27 11 -4 -18 -8 LAND (KM) 965 949 950 955 974 931 828 744 660 604 593 454 283 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.7 49.8 50.8 51.8 53.5 54.9 56.1 57.4 58.8 60.3 61.9 63.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 34 34 40 46 59 62 73 75 64 60 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 31. 41. 49. 56. 59. 62. 65. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/30/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/30/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY