* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/30/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 125 126 126 122 113 101 87 73 59 49 39 V (KT) LAND 115 121 125 126 126 122 113 101 85 71 47 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 115 118 119 118 116 109 102 92 80 70 47 36 34 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 8 6 7 6 12 19 19 24 30 30 SHEAR DIR 247 269 224 242 274 247 227 242 264 265 276 269 282 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.2 28.3 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.2 23.6 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 164 157 147 135 127 120 112 95 74 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 5 5 4 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 73 70 71 68 64 64 60 58 52 50 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 23 15 20 1 11 -10 -15 -15 -20 -1 7 200 MB DIV 76 69 62 31 34 28 50 5 -4 -17 6 -20 -1 LAND (KM) 378 361 363 366 374 266 120 62 20 7 -22 -52 19 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.2 18.9 20.5 22.2 23.9 25.4 26.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.2 107.7 108.3 108.9 109.9 110.9 111.7 112.3 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 7 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 65 55 47 47 44 36 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -17. -25. -34. -41. -48. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 11. 11. 7. -2. -14. -28. -42. -56. -66. -76. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/30/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 36% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/30/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY