* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/31/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 129 132 132 133 126 118 104 91 77 60 45 31 V (KT) LAND 125 129 132 132 133 126 118 77 52 37 31 26 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 125 122 119 110 101 69 48 35 30 30 24 SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 8 5 5 8 19 18 23 22 34 34 SHEAR DIR 153 210 242 265 247 230 207 265 262 278 278 292 301 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.0 28.7 28.0 26.8 25.0 23.3 21.5 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 167 162 155 152 144 131 109 91 74 60 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 7 8 5 5 2 5 2 4 700-500 MB RH 74 70 70 70 66 64 62 58 52 48 44 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 13 11 12 10 8 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 14 17 9 -4 21 -4 -2 2 8 19 35 200 MB DIV 87 67 27 29 30 40 28 -3 3 -4 -19 -9 -5 LAND (KM) 364 352 351 350 368 167 21 -50 -58 -50 -38 19 50 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.6 19.5 21.4 23.5 25.4 27.1 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.5 109.1 110.2 110.7 111.6 112.8 113.5 113.8 114.3 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 9 11 11 11 10 10 7 3 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 58 50 46 45 41 27 19 36 44 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -15. -23. -32. -42. -51. -60. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 2. 0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 8. 1. -7. -21. -34. -48. -65. -80. -94. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/31/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/31/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED