* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/31/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 51 61 67 70 71 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 51 61 67 70 71 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 48 56 64 68 72 74 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 6 0 7 5 16 12 13 13 7 16 SHEAR DIR 200 186 79 161 274 103 72 88 130 149 195 207 236 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 133 134 135 137 138 139 140 142 144 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 128 128 127 127 127 128 128 131 133 135 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 54 53 53 52 51 48 48 46 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 28 17 16 10 -1 2 2 -1 1 6 11 8 200 MB DIV 43 41 44 40 41 61 26 42 10 -4 -11 -7 -18 LAND (KM) 1014 1033 981 927 883 840 795 724 606 477 339 179 5 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.9 52.1 53.2 54.1 55.0 56.4 57.7 58.9 60.0 61.2 62.5 64.0 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 40 44 50 56 52 55 62 64 64 53 65 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 36. 42. 45. 46. 49. 49. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/31/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/31/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY