* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/31/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 43 53 63 67 70 71 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 43 53 63 67 70 71 71 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 50 60 68 74 78 64 SHEAR (KT) 7 2 8 4 4 2 4 9 10 12 5 12 12 SHEAR DIR 209 89 189 222 276 84 40 149 135 157 185 214 270 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 141 144 146 147 148 148 148 148 150 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 136 137 138 137 137 135 136 137 140 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 56 52 53 54 50 51 51 52 50 54 48 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 23 12 9 2 -1 4 -5 6 -7 13 9 19 15 200 MB DIV 25 33 42 54 65 25 35 17 -2 -3 -20 -6 -10 LAND (KM) 1054 992 926 882 850 814 723 614 487 360 213 47 -2 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 53.2 54.3 55.2 56.1 57.5 58.9 59.9 61.1 62.3 63.7 65.3 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 50 55 53 53 63 64 65 60 67 53 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 18. 28. 38. 42. 45. 46. 46. 46. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/31/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/31/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY