* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/31/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 125 125 124 120 106 94 83 73 62 53 46 V (KT) LAND 125 125 125 125 124 120 92 62 44 35 31 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 125 123 120 116 113 105 86 57 42 34 30 29 31 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 4 3 2 6 14 11 20 23 31 29 39 SHEAR DIR 209 238 275 304 187 219 287 249 289 276 298 297 292 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.3 28.7 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.6 28.0 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 165 161 158 152 147 143 142 136 140 133 135 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 8 5 6 3 5 3 6 1 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 66 66 64 64 56 50 44 44 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 13 10 7 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 8 0 -3 23 0 11 -3 12 10 25 46 200 MB DIV 55 37 35 32 31 47 4 4 -14 -26 -17 -22 0 LAND (KM) 377 379 388 329 223 95 -18 -18 -37 -27 -14 -14 4 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.0 20.9 22.9 24.8 26.4 27.5 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.6 109.1 109.7 110.2 111.1 111.7 112.3 112.8 113.2 113.2 113.6 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 10 9 7 5 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 43 36 32 12 1 0 69 62 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -26. -33. -41. -46. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -19. -31. -42. -52. -63. -72. -79. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/31/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/31/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY