* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 08/31/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 48 59 70 76 82 85 87 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 48 59 70 76 82 85 87 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 57 68 80 91 99 100 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 2 3 9 6 10 6 10 4 5 9 12 SHEAR DIR 174 157 265 4 62 10 79 48 60 28 30 299 310 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 145 148 149 150 150 150 150 150 151 151 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 140 142 141 139 139 138 139 140 140 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 56 53 51 54 54 52 51 53 50 52 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 29 20 9 1 6 8 8 3 8 14 22 24 33 200 MB DIV 46 65 66 46 48 28 45 15 -1 -16 -19 -13 13 LAND (KM) 925 853 792 756 733 713 664 548 423 296 145 44 77 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 54.4 55.4 56.3 57.1 58.4 59.6 60.7 61.9 63.1 64.6 66.1 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 55 60 64 65 61 64 68 71 72 65 62 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 34. 45. 51. 57. 60. 62. 63. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 08/31/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 08/31/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY