* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 08/31/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 132 131 129 120 106 91 81 64 52 43 37 V (KT) LAND 130 131 132 131 129 120 105 72 46 35 31 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 130 128 125 120 116 105 93 68 44 34 31 32 29 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 4 5 12 11 17 17 28 37 38 33 SHEAR DIR 191 246 257 257 212 251 253 256 275 289 289 270 270 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.8 27.9 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.0 26.9 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 164 160 157 153 143 135 131 124 120 130 134 134 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 9 7 6 3 5 3 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 69 65 62 60 54 49 42 45 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 13 14 13 11 8 8 4 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 9 6 29 7 10 4 3 13 8 58 33 200 MB DIV 47 47 32 30 31 8 7 -2 -4 -22 9 3 -7 LAND (KM) 421 424 344 238 159 84 28 -34 -66 -39 -13 3 12 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.0 19.8 20.8 21.8 23.7 25.7 26.9 27.7 28.4 29.1 29.6 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.3 113.6 113.8 114.1 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 5 4 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 47 43 35 30 12 8 0 46 43 63 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -13. -24. -35. -44. -53. -59. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -10. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -7. -13. -12. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -10. -24. -39. -49. -66. -78. -87. -93. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 08/31/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 08/31/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY