* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 08/31/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 24 22 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 5 8 7 8 12 17 15 10 10 15 SHEAR DIR 273 245 209 192 196 175 121 117 98 119 121 165 210 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 129 128 126 125 123 124 124 123 120 115 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 44 43 45 44 41 38 36 38 38 42 40 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 38 44 36 36 30 8 19 2 38 13 0 -12 200 MB DIV -16 -12 -16 -5 1 -9 -9 -10 1 17 -1 0 12 LAND (KM) 1289 1255 1220 1194 1167 1144 1130 1123 1115 1126 1155 1197 1203 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.4 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 121.4 121.2 121.1 120.9 120.8 120.9 120.9 120.8 121.1 121.6 122.4 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 3 1 3 5 4 4 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -21. -21. -21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 08/31/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 08/31/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY