* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 09/01/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 20 18 17 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 6 10 7 13 12 15 12 14 10 11 SHEAR DIR 251 269 186 174 170 152 133 124 107 107 138 181 199 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 128 126 126 125 124 124 124 125 123 119 115 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 44 44 46 44 43 42 39 38 39 40 41 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 36 31 17 14 3 2 15 34 37 21 17 200 MB DIV -18 -20 -18 -5 -14 -13 -13 -5 0 -8 -14 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 1275 1240 1206 1187 1168 1138 1123 1123 1132 1149 1181 1219 1224 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 121.5 121.3 121.2 121.1 120.9 120.9 120.9 121.0 121.3 121.9 122.7 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 4 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 4 2 2 4 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -15. -16. -17. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 09/01/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 09/01/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY