* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 09/01/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 53 62 71 76 79 80 81 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 53 62 71 76 79 80 68 69 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 40 47 57 68 79 85 89 84 92 SHEAR (KT) 11 4 2 2 2 4 5 13 11 10 13 14 20 SHEAR DIR 224 261 34 11 223 45 17 42 349 350 318 316 287 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 150 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 140 138 137 135 135 135 135 135 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 53 51 53 52 51 51 51 51 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 20 20 24 11 21 11 20 15 24 23 20 16 200 MB DIV 65 51 55 38 24 35 21 34 -14 0 4 12 2 LAND (KM) 798 772 756 746 742 632 523 415 309 191 74 -11 42 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.9 56.7 57.5 58.1 58.7 59.8 60.8 61.8 62.8 63.9 65.0 66.3 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 62 61 59 60 60 64 66 63 61 66 51 12 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 41. 46. 49. 50. 51. 50. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 09/01/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 09/01/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY